To clarify, I'd paint her nude or clothed. For me, the belly hanging out of the cloth is a bit exhibitionistic ... shades of (forgive me here) Odd Nerdrum.
Ann Ghetts (?) has done some neat clothed shots of expectant mothers that are most clearly expectant, not fleshy. You'll manage. Outside place a cool cloth around the figure (on the shadow side) to block the warm light rays. Leave the light source alone.
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