Be aware!
It is very important, whether you work from photos or life, to analyze what is happening from both a structural and lighting point of view. When working from preexisting reference material you need to play detective to figure out what is what and then augment your findings with the necessary additional information.
Poor reference is not a justifiable excuse. The great paintings were all painted by combining great reference material along with formidable knowledge. The greatest artists were those who were the most clever at figuring out how to get the information they required.
Were you aware that the photo you are working from has two light sources? The main light is coming from the upper right and is illuminating the face as well as the entire figure. The second light is coming from the far left, filling in the shadows of the dress and the hair, essentially flattening out the form. Evidence of this are the two shadows cast by the tail of the belt. The face is pretty much unaffected by the second light.
If it were me, I would set up a similarly dressed doll or child in a similar position, to get a better sense of the true values of the shadows on the dress and to get a shadow shape on the hair. With out the shadow shape on the hair the head will never have form.
Photographers often use multiple light sources to cover their basic lack of understanding. I personally use two light sources to photograph my sitters. A main light off to one side for form and a second light close to camera position to control the ratio of light to shadow density.
Paint from knowledge and the force will be with you.
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